November 10, 2022 in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Wisconsin Democrats are largely blaming their own party for their loss in the state’s battleground 3rd Congressional District in this week’s midterm election, claiming national Democratic support in the race could have kept the seat blue.
Republican retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden edged Democratic state Sen. Brad Pfaff early Wednesday by just four points — a margin slimmer than many expected. The Donald Trump-backed candidate vastly out-raised his Democratic opponent and received hundreds of thousands of dollars in support from outside Republican groups as Democrats in Washington left Pfaff in the lurch.
The absence of support in the open seat held by retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. Ron Kind since 1997 became a focal point for some as ballot returns showed Pfaff keeping the race within a few points in the hours after polls closed in Wisconsin. Van Orden’s victory means Republicans now represent six of the state’s eight congressional districts. The flipped seat puts Republicans closer to regaining the majority in the House of Representatives.
“That was a lot closer than I think anyone would have assumed for not having any real substantial support from Washington,” Democratic U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, who campaigned for Pfaff, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Wednesday.
“I just think that if we had had another quarter of a million, half a million, million (dollars) of being able to message just how extreme Derrick Van Orden was, it would have been a very different result.”
Van Orden out-raised and outspent Pfaff in the race by a factor of nearly four to one. He spent more than $2 million in advertising — more than Pfaff raised in the entire race — while also receiving help from national GOP arms.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with the House GOP leadership, initially purchased about $722,000 in advertising for Van Orden, and the National Republican Congressional Committee made $2.1 million in ad buys of its own. But the groups scaled down that support to $412,000 and $419,000, respectively, as they canceled reservations in a sign of GOP confidence in the race.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee did not invest any money in Pfaff, and Pfaff was not on the committee’s “Red to Blue” list, which puts a focus, along with extra resources, on the party’s key races.
House Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group for congressional campaigns, reserved $1.68 million in ad buys for Pfaff at the end of the campaign but later canceled those reservations as national Democratic confidence in Pfaff vanished.
One Democratic group, Center Forward PAC, spent about $500,000 on an ad alleging Van Orden was closer to the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection than he’s let on. Pfaff made Van Orden’s connections to Jan. 6 an integral part of his campaign. He posted about $700,000 in ads of his own.
‘Democrats had a golden opportunity’
“Democrats had a golden opportunity to keep a congressional seat that has been in Democratic hands for a generation,” said Scot Ross, a Wisconsin Democratic political analyst. “But the D.C. House Democratic operation left Wisconsin high and dry.”
Ross noted Van Orden’s presence outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, as well as other incidents, including a situation last year in which a 17-year-old library worker said Van Orden became angry and aggressive over an LGBTQ book display and another instance in which he was was cited for having a loaded handgun in his bag at the security screening checkpoint at the Cedar Rapids, Iowa, airport.
Those issues, Ross argued, could have been better brought to the public’s attention if money from outside Democratic groups flowed to Pfaff.
“This was a seat Democrats absolutely could have won because they had the right candidate, because Democrats were enthusiastic,” Ross said. “They were only missing the resources.”
“Everybody in Wisconsin did their job, and Democrats should still have this race,” he said. “And that fault for not having this race has to fall squarely at the feet of the D.C. House Democrats who didn’t put the money where they needed to put it to keep this seat.”
Resources focused on failed New York race
Pocan, Kind and Democratic U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore pushed the DCCC to invest in the race, according to both Pocan and Kind. But the group, chaired by U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, who came under Republican attack and needed resources of his own before ultimately losing his race, was focused on reelecting incumbents, the two congressmen said.
“I understand we all pay dues to the DCCC, so we try to protect people who pay dues first, but I do think you have to look at the uniqueness of a district,” Pocan said. “There were some real openings, I think, that should have made the district stand out as worthy to invest in.”
“I talked to them until I was blue in the face that Derrick Van Orden was eminently beatable because he was just a target-rich opportunity,” Kind told the Journal Sentinel.
A spokesman for the DCCC declined to comment on the Wisconsin Democrats’ claims. Instead, he referred the Journal Sentinel to comments DCCC executive director Tim Persico made to the Washington Post in October.
“There are places that I don’t know if we are going to be able to get to,” Persico said at the time. “It’s just money. They have billionaires and corporations stepping up with big checks and we just don’t have the same type of support. We are just getting outspent everywhere, so it is just a question of how much can we withstand.”
A House Majority PAC spokesman did not return a message seeking comment.
Van Orden, for his part, dismissed the idea outside Democratic funding could have turned the tables.
“This election was about gas, groceries and grandkids,” he said in a statement. “Families can’t afford the first two, and are worried about the future for the third. The voters of this district sent a message that they are tired of the career politicians. I plan on working every day for every person in this district regardless if they voted for me or not.”
Van Orden lost to Kind in 2020 by fewer than 3 points and had continued to campaign since. This was his second run at the rural western Wisconsin seat.
In an interview, Pfaff pushed back on the idea people did not think the race would be close. He claimed that the media perpetuated a narrative that Van Orden was going to win the race and called that a “disservice to democracy.”
“This is where the media has gone wrong,” Pfaff said. “You listen to these prognosticators and the voters of this district are reading that, all of that, and it’s even before the vote has been cast.”
When asked about national Democrats not backing him with funding, Pfaff said: “I will let the national party make their own decisions on that. They can look in the mirror and make their own (decisions).”
He added: “I am proud of the support I received from the voters of this district.”
Other Democratic shortcomings in Wisconsin
Despite the criticism of national Democrats, Wisconsin Democrats experienced shortcomings of their own this election cycle.
Statewide, Democrats failed to recruit candidates in two congressional races — against Republicans U.S. Reps. Mike Gallagher and Glenn Grothman, who represent solidly Republican districts.
When the congressional maps were redrawn and approved earlier this year, it looked like Democrats could be fairly competitive in both Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District and 1st Congressional District. Republican U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, whose 1st District became purple under the new maps, defeated his Democratic opponent by nine points Tuesday.
Still, as Wisconsin Democrats push back on their own party, they also look to 2024 and the western district they lost this week.
“I think this seat is very competitive in the next election round,” the retiring Kind said. “Any path to the majority is you gotta look at those Republicans that carried their seat by five points or less. That’s Van Orden.”
Ross, the Democratic analyst, said Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District should be at the “very very top of the Democrats’ opportunity list for 2024.”
“The D.C. House Democratic operation needs to recognize that Wisconsin is a swing state where, if we get the resources, we won,” Ross said.
“Maybe this is a wakeup call to ensure the D.C. House Democrats invest the resources so some accountability for the next two years can happen.”
Lawrence Andrea 